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Hurricane IVAN

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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST TUE SEP 07 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IVAN REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...NEARING
TOBAGO...WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH IN BARBADOS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...
AND ST. LUCIA.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  60.2 WEST OR ABOUT  45 MILES... 75
KM...NORTHEAST OF TOBAGO.
 
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.
 
IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.8 N... 60.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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