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Hurricane CHARLEY


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...CHARLEY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO BAYPORT. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST
CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO BAYPORT. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM NORTH OF BAYPORT NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING ALL OF
FLORIDA BAY.  AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM JUPITER INLET
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  81.9 WEST OR ABOUT  140
MILES... 230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
 
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH TONIGHT AND NEAR HAVANA CUBA FRIDAY
MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER
WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. IN ADDITION...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST.
 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N... 81.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Aug-2004 20:42:17 UTC