ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004 LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY AND BD ENHANCEMENT OF JAVIER DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE. PREVIOUS IMAGERY SHOWED AN OBSCURE EYE WHICH HAS SINCE RE-EMERGED. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AROUND 02Z HAS SLIGHTLY TRIMMED BACK THE 34 KT WIND RADII TO 100 NM IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HENCE THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 125 KTS. CURRENT MOTION IS 335/4 AND A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MOTION WHICH MOVES NORTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH DEVIATES BY MOVING JAVIER DUE WEST. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...HOWEVER THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SUITE DEPICTS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WHICH WEAKENS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AND GENERALLY DRIVES JAVIER NORTHWEST AND FINALLY NORTH INTO NORTHERN BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE GUNS CONSENUS WHICH DOES NOT INCLUDE GFS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WITH SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. DURING EXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIOD...JAVIER MOVES INTO MUCH COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING OF JAVIER BEYOND 96 HOURS. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.0N 108.3W 125 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W 120 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.6N 109.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.9N 110.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 24.0N 113.6W 80 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 25.5N 115.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 27.5N 115.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 09:06:13 UTC