Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004

LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY AND BD ENHANCEMENT OF JAVIER DEPICTS A WELL
ORGANIZED HURRICANE. PREVIOUS IMAGERY SHOWED AN OBSCURE EYE WHICH
HAS SINCE RE-EMERGED. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AROUND 02Z
HAS SLIGHTLY TRIMMED BACK THE 34 KT WIND RADII TO 100 NM IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HENCE THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 125 KTS. 

CURRENT MOTION IS 335/4 AND A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A MOTION WHICH MOVES NORTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
DEVIATES BY MOVING JAVIER DUE WEST. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...HOWEVER THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE SUITE DEPICTS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WHICH WEAKENS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AND GENERALLY
DRIVES JAVIER NORTHWEST AND FINALLY NORTH INTO NORTHERN BAJA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD THE GUNS CONSENUS WHICH DOES NOT INCLUDE GFS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WITH SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  DURING
EXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIOD...JAVIER MOVES INTO MUCH COOLER SSTS
AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING OF JAVIER BEYOND 96
HOURS.

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.0N 108.3W   125 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W   120 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N 109.5W   110 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.9N 110.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N 111.7W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 113.6W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 25.5N 115.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 27.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 09:06:13 UTC