ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004 JAVIER LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS IT DID 6 HOURS AGO...WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. A RE-ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE ESTIMATES OF JAVIERS POSITIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS GAVE A MOTION OF 275/12...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED ACCORDING. JAVIER IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST...BECAUSE THE SYSTEM KEEPS RUNNING TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS NOT BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SAYS THAT THIS WILL STILL HAPPEN BUT I AM GOING CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT ABOUT 10 KTS BEFORE I FOLLOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS BUT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS TO ABOUT 10 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS AND MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS JUST AFTER RECURVATURE IS COMPLETED. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 12.1N 100.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 12.4N 102.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 13.4N 103.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.3N 104.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W 80 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 106.4W 80 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 106.8W 80 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 02:55:23 UTC