Tropical Storm JAVIER

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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
 
JAVIER LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS IT DID 6 HOURS AGO...WITH INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH 
BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT.
 
A RE-ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE ESTIMATES OF JAVIERS POSITIONS DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS GAVE A MOTION OF 275/12...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE
USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND THE TRACK
IS ADJUSTED ACCORDING.  JAVIER IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST...BECAUSE THE SYSTEM KEEPS RUNNING TOWARD THE WEST
AND HAS NOT BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN. 
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SAYS THAT THIS WILL STILL HAPPEN BUT I AM GOING
CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT ABOUT 10 KTS BEFORE I
FOLLOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS BUT CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.  

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
THE NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24
HOURS TO ABOUT 10 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS AND MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS
JUST AFTER RECURVATURE IS COMPLETED.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0300Z 12.1N 100.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/1200Z 12.4N 102.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     13/0000Z 13.4N 103.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.3N 104.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W    70 KT
 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W    80 KT
 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 106.4W    80 KT
120HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 106.8W    80 KT
 
 
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