ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EARLIER TRMM AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE ANALYSIS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS IN FACT BECOME FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 45 KT WHILE THE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT. HOWARD CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WATER VAPOR DEPICTS UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SHIPS DISSIPATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A DECREASE TO 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE GUNA AND CONU. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 24.2N 118.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 25.0N 119.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 25.5N 120.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 25.9N 121.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 20:34:17 UTC