Hurricane HOWARD

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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EARLIER TRMM AND AMSU-B
MICROWAVE ANALYSIS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS IN
FACT BECOME FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.
DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 45 KT WHILE THE
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 50 KT. HOWARD CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WATER VAPOR
DEPICTS UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SHIPS DISSIPATES
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A
DECREASE TO 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN
48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 72 HOURS.  
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE GUNA AND
CONU.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 24.2N 118.5W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 25.0N 119.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 120.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 25.9N 121.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 26.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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