Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004
 
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 4.5... AND 4.0 FROM
AIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.   THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 65 KT. HOWARD HAS MOVED OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND IS ENTRAINING DRYER STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AS INDICATED BY THE STRATUS LAYER CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM.
BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET SOLUTION FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS...WHICH GRADUALLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM...AND THEN CURVES THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS.  
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 23.5N 116.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 25.0N 116.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 26.4N 117.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 27.4N 117.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 27.7N 118.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 27.8N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 28.1N 120.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/0600Z 28.4N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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