Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 01 2004

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED...WITH A FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC CDO HAVING DEVELOPED AND THE EYE BECOMING APPARENT ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.  HOWARD
SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 36-48 HOURS SO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWARD
WILL BE CROSSING THE 26 DEG SST ISOTHERM IN AROUND 48 HOURS...AND
THEREFORE WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT THAT TIME.  IF
HOWARD MOVES FASTER THAN FORECAST...IT WOULD REACH THE COOLER
WATERS SOONER...AND THEREFORE WEAKEN SOONER.

IN 1-2 DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND INTO CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RESPONDS
TO THIS BY RECURVING HOWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE 5-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER NONE OF THE OTHER MULTI-LEVEL DYNAMICAL
MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT...ASIDE FROM A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...HOWARD WILL NOT
RESPOND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THIS TROUGH.  EARLIER INFRARED-ONLY FIXES
WERE A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TRACK.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 16.8N 112.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.6N 113.6W    90 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 115.2W    95 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.3N 116.6W    95 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 117.7W    90 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 24.5N 122.5W    40 KT
 
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