Tropical Storm HOWARD

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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS SIMILAR TO
BEFORE.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE UKMET MODEL FORECASTING
HOWARD ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND THE GFS SHOWING A GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION.  IT IS ALSO NEAR THE CONSENSUS. 

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH PLUSES
ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SUGGESTING THAT THE WIND SPEED COULD
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 55 KTS.  BECAUSE OF THE IMPRESSIVE
BURST IN CONVECTION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE APPEARANCE OF
A CDO TYPE PATTERN I AM MAKING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 60 KTS. THE
SHIPS MODEL HAS TAKEN A DRAMATIC JUMP IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. 
IT IS INDICATING AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BASED UPON 7 OF 7 CONDITIONS SATISFIED.  THESE INCLUDE LOW
SHEAR...4 KTS...SSTS OF 30 DEG C AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES.  I AM GOING TO GO OUT ON A LIMB AND GO WITH THE SHIPS
ON THIS...MAKING HOWARD A HURRICANE IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AND A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 15.2N 108.9W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W    90 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.2N 114.6W    95 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W   100 KT
 72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W    90 KT
 96HR VT     05/0000Z 21.6N 120.9W    80 KT
120HR VT     06/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W    65 KT
 
 
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