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Tropical Storm HOWARD


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004
 
ENHANCED BD INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER SSMI AND AMSR-E
MICROWAVE PASSES DEPICT THAT ELEVEN-E HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY REVEALS WELL
DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TUCKED BENEATH THE DEEP
CONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES IS 35 KT.
THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 53 KT AT 993 MB. BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM HOWARD.
 
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE PASSES...THE TROPICAL STORMS BEST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS. INITIAL
MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300 AT 10 KT. TROPICAL STORM HOWARD
IS MOVING WITHING THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND BAJA. A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HOWARD TO
REDUCE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BEGIN A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH
THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE
UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...BOTH
THE NOGAPS AND THE GFS SHOW LESS OF A RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE WITH A SLOW NORTHWEST DRIFT AFTER DAY 4. THE GFDL...UKMET AND
THE NAVY GFDN REVEAL A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS
WHICH AGGRESSIVELY BEGINS TO ERODE THE RIDGE CREATING AN ABRUPT
TURN TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48...THEN IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF
CONU TO CONFORM WITH A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
THE SEA SURFACE IS WARM AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS
WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY
4...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
COMMENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 14.0N 106.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 14.8N 107.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.9N 109.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.8N 111.6W    65 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.6N 113.4W    75 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 19.3N 116.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     05/0600Z 23.0N 119.5W    50 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Aug-2004 08:54:41 UTC