ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004 VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND LOW CLOUD SWIRLS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN ISOLATED AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND CIRRUS DEBRIS OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATIVE OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN AT 1.5. AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SST LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS...CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS REMNANT LOW...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 19.7N 128.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 19.8N 129.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 26/1800Z 19.9N 131.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 134.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 20:43:33 UTC