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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND LOW CLOUD
SWIRLS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  AN ISOLATED
AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND
CIRRUS DEBRIS OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...INDICATIVE OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN AT 1.5.  AS A RESULT OF THE
ABOVE...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SST LESS THAN 25
DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
LEAD TO DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS...CONSISTENT
WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
 
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS.  THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS
REMNANT LOW...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 19.7N 128.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.8N 129.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.9N 131.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 134.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 20:43:33 UTC