ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TD-9E DURING THE EVENING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOME MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANK APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER. AFTER MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...TD-9E NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. TD-9E IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST AND A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THERE IS ANY BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE FRANK TO THE EAST...AND THIS FORECAST ASSUMES MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL. FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.2N 123.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 18.3N 123.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.7N 124.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.4N 126.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 132.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 19.5N 136.0W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 02:33:19 UTC