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Tropical Depression NINE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TD-9E DURING THE EVENING AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOME MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN
ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANK
APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST.  THESE
FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE STORM
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER.
 
AFTER MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...TD-9E NOW APPEARS TO
BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
360/04. TD-9E IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST IS FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THERE IS
ANY BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE FRANK TO THE EAST...AND THIS
FORECAST ASSUMES MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS IN BETWEEN THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL. 
 
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 18.2N 123.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.3N 123.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.7N 124.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.4N 126.4W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 132.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 136.0W    25 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 02:33:19 UTC