ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 77 KT FROM SAB. THESE HOWEVER ARE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS. SINCE THE TIME OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A GENEROUS 65 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. IN ADDITION THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IMPLY A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING RATE AS THEY DO NOT SHOW ANY CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. FRANK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND CALLS FOR A TURN MORE TO THE WEST AFTER 12-24 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH INDICATES THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... AND SHOULD LIFT OUT COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS WITH A WEAK RIDGE BRIDGING ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER THAT TIME. IN ADDITION THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD EXHIBIT LESS CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BECOME STEERED MORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS. A 10 FT SEA REPORT FROM SHIP CALL SIGN 4XIS LOCATED 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FRANK WAS THE BASIS FOR EXPANDING THE 12 FT SEA RADII IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 22.0N 115.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 22.7N 116.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 23.0N 118.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 23.0N 121.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0000Z 23.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 02:33:26 UTC