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Hurricane FRANK


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA
AND 77 KT FROM SAB. THESE HOWEVER ARE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS. SINCE THE TIME OF THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AND THE
OVERALL APPEARANCE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT A GENEROUS 65 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM
AND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST...ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE
GFDL MODELS. IN ADDITION THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
IMPLY A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING RATE AS THEY DO NOT SHOW ANY CYCLONE
AFTER 72 HOURS. 

FRANK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT
8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 
AND CALLS FOR A TURN MORE TO THE WEST AFTER 12-24 HOURS. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH INDICATES THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... 
AND SHOULD LIFT OUT COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS WITH A
WEAK RIDGE BRIDGING ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER THAT
TIME. IN ADDITION THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD EXHIBIT LESS CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND BECOME STEERED MORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
THROUGH 72 HOURS. 

A 10 FT SEA REPORT FROM SHIP CALL SIGN 4XIS LOCATED 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FRANK WAS THE BASIS FOR EXPANDING
THE 12 FT SEA RADII IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.

FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 22.0N 115.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 22.7N 116.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 118.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 121.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/0000Z 23.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
NNNN



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 25-Aug-2004 02:33:26 UTC