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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
 
THE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC BASIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL CROSSED CENTRAL AMERICA ON 18 AUGUST AND HAS
BEEN MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVED SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW A PERSISTENT COLD
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT COULD BE AN INDICATION OF
INTENSIFICATION.  ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARE
SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...IT IS DECIDED TO ISSUE DEPRESSION ADVISORIES AS A
COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COLD
WATER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT PROVIDE MUCH TRACK GUIDANCE AS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED
ABOUT TEN DEGREES WEST OF THE DEPRESSION TENDS TO BE THE DOMINATING
FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A NOT-TOO-FAST
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS FOLLOWING
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL NHC91 MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 17.0N 110.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.1N 112.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.5N 113.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 115.1W    55 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 117.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N 122.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 09:03:20 UTC