ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004 ESTELLE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HR. A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS TO -82C HAS FORMED... AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CDO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10. ESTELLE CONTINUES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS NORTHWEST OF THE STORM THAT IS ALLOWING THE CURRENT MOTION. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN ESTELLE MORE WESTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL CALLING FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS CALLING FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE LINE OF BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION BY 120 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. ESTELLE LOOKS LIKE A COMAPCT CYCLONE WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL CORE...AND UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE STORM IS MOVING FROM 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO 25-26C IN 36 HR...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS ESTELLE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 151W. GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 24 HR OF STRENGTHENING...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AS ESTELLE MOVES OVER GRADUALLY WARMER SSTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON ESTELLE BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 14.5N 139.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 15.1N 141.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 16.0N 143.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 16.7N 145.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 23/0000Z 17.0N 147.3W 70 KT 72HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 151.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/0000Z 17.0N 154.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 26/0000Z 16.5N 157.5W 65 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Aug-2004 02:33:20 UTC