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Tropical Storm ESTELLE


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
ESTELLE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6
HR.  A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS TO -82C HAS FORMED...
AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CDO IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55
KT...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  ESTELLE CONTINUES ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM THAT IS ALLOWING THE CURRENT MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THE RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN ESTELLE MORE
WESTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL
CALLING FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS
CALLING FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ALONG THE LINE OF BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION BY 120 HR IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

ESTELLE LOOKS LIKE A COMAPCT CYCLONE WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL
CORE...AND UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE STORM IS MOVING FROM 27C
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO 25-26C IN 36 HR...AND THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS ESTELLE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 151W.  GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 24 HR OF STRENGTHENING...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER 72 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AS ESTELLE MOVES OVER GRADUALLY
WARMER SSTS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS
AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON ESTELLE BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 14.5N 139.8W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.1N 141.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 143.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.7N 145.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 147.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 151.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 154.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 157.5W    65 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Aug-2004 02:33:20 UTC