ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004 SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT RAIN-FLAGGED WIND SPEEDS. THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WITH 35 KT WINDS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO 50 KT IN 36 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH INDICATE SLOWLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH...THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.9N 136.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.7N 138.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 15.4N 140.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 16.1N 142.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 16.9N 143.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 147.2W 50 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 17.4N 150.8W 50 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Aug-2004 09:03:13 UTC