Tropical Storm ESTELLE

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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT RAIN-FLAGGED WIND SPEEDS. 
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WITH 35 KT
WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO 50 KT IN 36 HOURS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH INDICATE SLOWLY 
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12.  WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HOLDING TO THE NORTH...THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.  
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 13.9N 136.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.7N 138.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.4N 140.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.1N 142.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N 143.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 147.2W    50 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 150.8W    50 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W    50 KT
 
 
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