ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 01 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB AND T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM SAB. THEREFORE...ADVSIORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1215 NMI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO AND THE CYCLONE MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 28C WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS...THEN THE CYCLONE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 12.4N 127.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 12.6N 129.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 131.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.4N 132.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 134.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W 55 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 03:02:31 UTC