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Tropical Depression SIX-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 01 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB AND
T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM SAB. THEREFORE...ADVSIORIES ARE BEING
RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1215 NMI 
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AND THE CYCLONE MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO BEEN IMPROVING AND
BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 28C WATER AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS...THEN THE CYCLONE COULD
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 12.4N 127.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 12.6N 129.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 131.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.4N 132.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N 134.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W    55 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N 141.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    35 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 03:02:31 UTC