ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI JUL 30 2004 THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD IN THIS ADVISORY. DARBY HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DARBY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN 48 HOURS OR LESS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT PATCHES CONVECTION. BECAUSE DARBY HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE AND DARBY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 18.8N 135.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 18.9N 137.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 151.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 155.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 05/0000Z 22.5N 158.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Jul-2004 02:32:29 UTC