Hurricane DARBY

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TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 30 2004
 
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD IN THIS ADVISORY. DARBY HAS BECOME A TIGHT
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DARBY
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN 48 HOURS OR LESS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT
PATCHES CONVECTION.  

BECAUSE DARBY HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE AND DARBY OR ITS REMNANTS
SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 18.8N 135.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 18.9N 137.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W    25 KT
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 151.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 155.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 158.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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