ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004 DARBY IS COMING APART RAPIDLY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS 4.0/5.0...AND IN ACCORD WITH RECENT STUDIES...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS...OR 75 KT. COLD WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR LIE AHEAD FOR DARBY...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECAY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/11...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND ITS DEPENDENT GFNI...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH AN APPARENT DECOUPLING UNDERWAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 18.3N 129.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 131.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.2N 134.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 19.5N 136.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 19.5N 139.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 03/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Jul-2004 02:42:28 UTC