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Hurricane DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
 
DARBY IS COMING APART RAPIDLY.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING
LESS WELL DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER.  CURRENT DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS
4.0/5.0...AND IN ACCORD WITH RECENT STUDIES...THE INTENSITY IS SET
TO AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS...OR 75 KT.  COLD WATER AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR LIE AHEAD FOR DARBY...SO CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECAY IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
285/11...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. EXCEPT FOR
THE NOGAPS AND ITS DEPENDENT GFNI...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WITH AN APPARENT DECOUPLING UNDERWAY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 18.3N 129.8W    75 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.8N 131.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 19.2N 134.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 136.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.5N 139.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Jul-2004 02:42:28 UTC