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Tropical Storm DARBY


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2004
 
DARBY APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH THE
EARLIER BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED...SUBJECTIVE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0Z WERE BOTH T4.0...65 KT. 
AFWA'S ESTIMATE WAS LOWER...AT 55 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT
OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS ARE ALSO BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH.  CONSEQUENTLY DARBY IS BEING HELD AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH DARBY WILL REMAIN IN A WARM WATER/LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...NEITHER THE GFDL NOR
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF DARBY WILL
BE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
GFDL GUIDANCE.

DARBY IS MOVING AT 290/13.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AS DARBY
MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...DARBY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT MAY
CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  THE GFS IS
SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER...CALLING FOR A RAPID WEAKENING OF DARBY
FOLLOWED BY A RATHER QUICK TURN TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UKMET.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 14.4N 121.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.1N 122.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.7N 125.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 16.4N 127.1W    75 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N 133.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 137.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W    45 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 28-Jul-2004 02:42:26 UTC