ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...DEEP CONVECTION IS WANING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. STEADY WEAKENING IS CALLED FOR AS BLAS MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. TYPICALLY...A CYCLONE WITH A LARGE CIRCULATION SUCH AS BLAS TAKES MORE TIME THAN USUAL TO SPIN DOWN. HOWEVER IN 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-22 DEG C SSTS...SO BLAS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THE UNUSUALLY FAST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...310/18. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE STEERING WINDS AS BLAS NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING...THE OUTER BANDS OF BLAS COULD STILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 21.2N 114.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 22.1N 116.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 23.2N 118.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 18/0000Z 24.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Jul-2004 02:42:21 UTC