Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...DEEP CONVECTION
IS WANING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT...IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
CALLED FOR AS BLAS MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. 
TYPICALLY...A CYCLONE WITH A LARGE CIRCULATION SUCH AS BLAS TAKES
MORE TIME THAN USUAL TO SPIN DOWN.  HOWEVER IN 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-22 DEG C SSTS...SO BLAS IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.  

THE UNUSUALLY FAST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...310/18.  THE
STORM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. 
THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME SLOWING OF THE STEERING WINDS AS BLAS NEARS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING...THE OUTER BANDS OF BLAS
COULD STILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 21.2N 114.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N 116.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 23.2N 118.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 24.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 14-Jul-2004 02:42:21 UTC