ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AGATHA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED FURTHER. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING. MOREOVER...IR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW- OR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A COMPONENT OF MOTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. AGATHA MAY ALREADY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH... CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 45 KT FOR A WHILE AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAPID WEAKENING...WITH STABLE AIR BEING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE STORM'S DEMISE. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE BELOW STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. AGATHA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THE STEERING CURRENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...SO VERY LITTLE MOTION IS FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE EAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODEL TRACKS. THE GFDN HAS BEEN EXCLUDED SINCE IT SHOWS AN UNREALISTIC SOUTHWARD MOTION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 17.8N 110.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 18.5N 110.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 19.3N 110.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 19.7N 110.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC