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Tropical Storm AGATHA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AGATHA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED FURTHER. 
IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING. 
MOREOVER...IR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW- OR
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A COMPONENT OF MOTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. 
AGATHA MAY ALREADY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH... CONSEQUENTLY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 45 KT FOR A WHILE
AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAPID WEAKENING...WITH STABLE AIR
BEING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE STORM'S DEMISE.  THE GFDL
MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE BELOW STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 60 HOURS.  AGATHA COULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A GRADUAL SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE STEERING CURRENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING...SO VERY LITTLE MOTION IS FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE EAST TO BE CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODEL TRACKS. 
THE GFDN HAS BEEN EXCLUDED SINCE IT SHOWS AN UNREALISTIC SOUTHWARD
MOTION.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 17.8N 110.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 110.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.3N 110.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 19.7N 110.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W    25 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC