ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004 AMSU DATA FROM NOAA SATELLITES SUGGEST THAT NICOLE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL WARM CORE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDING. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE. IN A FEW DAYS NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY...A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY ON MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL NICOLE NORTHWARD SOON. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...FOLLOWED BY A CURVE TO THE LEFT WITH DECELERATION AS THE NICOLE BEGINS TO INTERACT AND MERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 32.0N 66.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 34.3N 66.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 39.0N 65.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 41.0N 65.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 12/1800Z 41.5N 66.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Oct-2004 20:43:48 UTC