Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Subtropical Storm NICOLE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

AMSU DATA FROM NOAA SATELLITES SUGGEST THAT NICOLE MAY HAVE
DEVELOPED A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL WARM CORE.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDING.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT
GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE.  IN A FEW DAYS NICOLE IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY...A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY ON MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO
PULL NICOLE NORTHWARD SOON.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...FOLLOWED BY A CURVE
TO THE LEFT WITH DECELERATION AS THE NICOLE BEGINS TO INTERACT AND
MERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS REASONING.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 32.0N  66.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 34.3N  66.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  65.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 41.0N  65.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 41.5N  66.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 10-Oct-2004 20:43:48 UTC