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Hurricane IVAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  68
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004
 
ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KNOTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IVAN. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
IVAN COULD RELAX SOME...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION...AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND THE CENTER
SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 27.4N  90.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 28.4N  91.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 29.5N  94.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  96.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 32.0N  96.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Sep-2004 02:54:12 UTC