Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IVAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT.  CONVECTION IS
REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS
APPROACHING -80 DEG C.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN
ALL QUADRANTS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18.  ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS.  FOR THE
120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND
MOVES IVAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS THE
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. 
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT AT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN.  GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130
KT IN 12 HOURS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.  

FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 10.8N  49.4W   115 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 11.4N  52.1W   130 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 12.2N  55.6W   130 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N  58.9W   130 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 13.8N  61.7W   130 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 16.1N  67.1W   130 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.7N  71.7W    60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 02:42:54 UTC