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Tropical Storm HERMINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHT
TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING.
 
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED AND...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE MERGED WITH THE
MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEPS THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE
U.S EAST COAST. THEREFORE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING ARE
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 32.4N  71.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 35.6N  73.1W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 39.0N  72.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Aug-2004 21:02:43 UTC