Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FRANCES


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004
 
ALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY
DISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE
PROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.
 
FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL
MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS.  THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FORCING FRANCES
TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. ALL TRACK MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE NOW
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.
 
AT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT
NECESSARY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 24.1N  74.8W   120 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 24.9N  76.2W   120 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 26.0N  77.8W   120 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   115 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.7N  80.5W    90 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  83.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/1800Z 34.5N  87.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Sep-2004 20:35:49 UTC