Tropical Storm BONNIE

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004
 
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN 8 MILE WIDE CLOSED EYEWALL AT
22Z ALONG WITH 56 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN THE EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED SOME AND
EXPANDED TO 20 MILES. BASED ON THIS...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45
KT.  IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO REPORT A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH WINDS
LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE.
 
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND TO 77 AND 83 KT
RESPECTIVELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.  IN
CONTRAST...OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO INTENSIFICATION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL.  THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
WITH SUCH DIVERGENT GUIDANCE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
 
THE STORM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON RECON FIXES AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05.  THE ONLY GLOBAL TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE ARE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS AND THE GFS ONLY
TRACKS THE STORM TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF THE
FORWARD SPEED AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 23.4N  89.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 24.1N  89.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 25.3N  90.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 26.6N  89.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 27.7N  88.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 31.0N  84.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 35.0N  78.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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