Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm BONNIE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004
 
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN 8 MILE WIDE CLOSED EYEWALL AT
22Z ALONG WITH 56 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN THE EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED SOME AND
EXPANDED TO 20 MILES. BASED ON THIS...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45
KT.  IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO REPORT A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH WINDS
LESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE.
 
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND TO 77 AND 83 KT
RESPECTIVELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.  IN
CONTRAST...OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO INTENSIFICATION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KT BEFORE
LANDFALL.  THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
WITH SUCH DIVERGENT GUIDANCE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
 
THE STORM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON RECON FIXES AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05.  THE ONLY GLOBAL TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE ARE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS AND THE GFS ONLY
TRACKS THE STORM TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF THE
FORWARD SPEED AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 23.4N  89.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 24.1N  89.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 25.3N  90.2W    45 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 26.6N  89.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 27.7N  88.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 31.0N  84.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 35.0N  78.5W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 10-Aug-2004 02:52:18 UTC