ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004 DIFFICULTY REMAINS IN DETERMINING THE CENTER POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION. MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN BEEN INDICATING. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK POSITIONS AND THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS...AND CLOSE TO WHERE THE LATEST BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...IF THERE IS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION ...THEN IT IS LIKELY A VERY SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE WEAK WINDS BEING REPORTED AT NEARBY BARBADOS. A RECON FLIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE US SOME ANSWERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON CONSECUTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND SOME 25 TO NEAR 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS IN A 03/2208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/19...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE MOVING CLOSER TO 270 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE UP TO 51 KT AND 57 KT IN 48 HOURS ...RESPECTIVELY...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOT EXIST. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 13.6N 58.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 14.2N 61.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 15.3N 64.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.7N 67.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.3N 69.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 30.5N 70.0W 70 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Aug-2004 03:02:14 UTC