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Tropical Depression TWO


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
DIFFICULTY REMAINS IN DETERMINING THE CENTER POSITION OF THE
DEPRESSION. MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN BEEN INDICATING. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK POSITIONS AND THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS...AND CLOSE TO WHERE
THE LATEST BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...IF THERE IS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION
...THEN IT IS LIKELY A VERY SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION AS
SUGGESTED BY THE WEAK WINDS BEING REPORTED AT NEARBY BARBADOS. A
RECON FLIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE US SOME ANSWERS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON CONSECUTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND SOME 25 TO NEAR 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND
SPEEDS IN A 03/2208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/19...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE
MOVING CLOSER TO 270 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS
SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN
NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE UP TO 51 KT AND 57 KT IN 48 HOURS
...RESPECTIVELY...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOT EXIST.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 13.6N  58.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N  61.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 15.3N  64.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N  67.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.3N  69.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.0N  70.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  70.0W    70 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Aug-2004 03:02:14 UTC