Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ALEX


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
 
ALEX NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A WIDE SYMMETRIC RING OF
CONVECTION AND WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 5.0 DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26C AND 27C.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THEREAFTER...IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS...BUT IT MAY REMAIN
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 075/16...A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
GRADUAL ACCELERATION WITHIN A STRONG WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TO THE
EAST.  MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE
LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME
ABSORBED A DAY OR TWO LATER.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 37.9N  67.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 39.0N  63.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 42.0N  56.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 44.6N  47.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 45.4N  37.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Aug-2004 20:42:16 UTC