Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004
 
THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGES OR COASTAL RADARS.  LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON THE NIGHT CHANNEL
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS NORTH OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS.  THERE IS MODEST UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE DEPRESSION'S CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HINDER
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR
THE COAST...AS DOES THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A
LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...340/6...REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SO STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUALLY-
AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SUGGEST KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 32.1N  79.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 33.0N  79.2W    25 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 34.0N  78.2W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 34.8N  77.0W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 35.7N  75.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 39.5N  69.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 44.5N  60.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
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