ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2003 PATRICIA IS STILL NOT GENERATING MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL-ORGANIZED. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NO LONGER BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER WE WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM TO GET ANOTHER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY. IN SPITE OF ITS CURRENT WEAKENED STATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PATRICIA COULD SOON ENTER AN AREA OF WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS SOME RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE MUCH STRONGER SHEAR TAKES ITS TOLL. THE NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF PATRICIA MAY BE WEAKENING FURTHER...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 290/9. AS NOTED EARLIER...THE FUTURE TRACK IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY...IT SHOULD MOVE MUCH MORE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HOWEVER A RATHER WEAK CYCLONE WOULD MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN CALLING FOR A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THIS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM FORECAST TRACKS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 13.8N 112.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 14.3N 113.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 115.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC