Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2003

PATRICIA IS STILL NOT GENERATING MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT
CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL-ORGANIZED.  THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS
INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE MAY NO LONGER BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM TO GET ANOTHER
ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.  IN SPITE OF ITS CURRENT WEAKENED
STATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PATRICIA COULD SOON ENTER
AN AREA OF WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE
PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS SOME RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BEFORE MUCH STRONGER SHEAR TAKES ITS TOLL.

THE NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF PATRICIA MAY BE WEAKENING
FURTHER...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. 
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 290/9.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE FUTURE
TRACK IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY...IT SHOULD MOVE
MUCH MORE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO
ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER A RATHER WEAK CYCLONE WOULD MOVE
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW. 
THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN CALLING FOR A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...BUT WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
THIS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM FORECAST TRACKS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 13.8N 112.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.3N 113.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 115.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING 
 
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