ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2003 PATRICIA REMAINS SHEARED THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL-CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. COARSE RESOLUTION DATA FROM AN ADEOS SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 5Z SUGGESTS THAT PATRICIA MAY HAVE ALREADY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...BUT I WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY UP AT 40 KT FOR NOW...CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT DVORAK T/CI AVERAGE...IN HOPES THAT THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS WILL CONFIRM THE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON PATRICIA ALL ALONG. THE GFDL STILL CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND A NORTHWARD TURN...AND IS JOINED IN THIS TRACK SCENARIO BY THE NOGAPS. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING AND A BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...I DO NOT THINK THAT THE GFDL SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE. ANY REDUCTION IN SHEAR SHOULD BE BRIEF BEFORE THE WESTERLIES BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HALTING OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT PATRICIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TAKE A PATH TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 13.3N 111.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 13.8N 112.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 14.9N 113.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 15.7N 114.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 122.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC