Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2003
 
PATRICIA REMAINS SHEARED THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL-CENTER
EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  COARSE
RESOLUTION DATA FROM AN ADEOS SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 5Z SUGGESTS
THAT PATRICIA MAY HAVE ALREADY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...BUT I
WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY UP AT 40 KT FOR NOW...CONSISTENT WITH THE
CURRENT DVORAK T/CI AVERAGE...IN HOPES THAT THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS
WILL CONFIRM THE WEAKENING.  

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO BE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE
ON PATRICIA ALL ALONG.  THE GFDL STILL CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION
AND A NORTHWARD TURN...AND IS JOINED IN THIS TRACK SCENARIO BY THE
NOGAPS.  WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING AND A
BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...I DO NOT THINK THAT THE GFDL
SOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE.  ANY REDUCTION IN SHEAR SHOULD BE BRIEF
BEFORE THE WESTERLIES BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A MODEST TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HALTING OF THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT PATRICIA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TAKE A PATH TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 13.3N 111.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.8N 112.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.9N 113.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.7N 114.3W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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