ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 OLAF CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE CUYUTLAN RADAR SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE WITH BANDING. THE EYE HAS BEEN GETTING SMALLER IN THE ANIMATION AND IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 50 KTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE NUDGED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM INLAND AND CREATE A QUICKER DECAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A BEND IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS PER THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.8N 104.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.5N 104.7W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.8N 105.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/1200Z 22.3N 105.4W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 105.8W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 10/0000Z 27.7N 105.7W DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC